EU Council President Says Bloc Has ‘Turned the Page’ With Trump

Here is a detailed explanation of that statement.

The comment from the EU Council President, Charles Michel, that the bloc has “turned the page” with Trump is a significant diplomatic statement reflecting a major strategic shift in Europe’s approach to the United States.

Here’s a breakdown of what it means, the context behind it, and the potential implications.

What Does “Turned the Page” Mean?

In diplomatic terms, “turning the page” means:

1. Acknowledging the Past: Recognizing that the previous era (Trump’s first term) was fraught with tension and conflict.

2. Choosing to Move On: Deciding not to dwell on past grievances or be held hostage by the possibility of a return to that contentious relationship.

3. A New Strategy: Actively adopting a new approach based on the current reality, not on hope or fear about what might happen.

Essentially, Michel is saying the EU is no longer waiting to see if Trump will win or worrying about how to manage him. They are proceeding with a strategy built on EU self-reliance and preparing for any outcome.

Context: The “Trump First Term” Playbook (2017-2021)

To understand why the EU feels the need to “turn the page,” you have to recall the state of transatlantic relations during Trump’s first term:

• “America First” Foreign Policy: Trump openly questioned the value of NATO, calling it “obsolete” and criticizing European allies for not meeting defense spending targets (2% of GDP).

• Trade Wars: The U.S. imposed tariffs on European steel and aluminum, triggering a cycle of retaliatory tariffs on American products like motorcycles and bourbon.

• Withdrawal from Agreements: Trump pulled the U.S. out of the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), which the EU had helped negotiate and strongly supported, and began the process of leaving the Paris Climate Agreement.

• Rhetoric and Distrust: Trump consistently praised authoritarian leaders like Vladimir Putin while criticizing democratic allies like Germany’s Angela Merkel. This created deep distrust and anxiety in European capitals.

The relationship was transactional, unpredictable, and often hostile.

Why Say This Now?

Michel’s statement is a direct response to the high likelihood of Donald Trump becoming the Republican presidential nominee and having a very strong chance of winning the November 2024 election.

The EU’s old strategy was based on waiting out Trump’s first term, hoping for a return to “normal” U.S. foreign policy. Now that a second term is a concrete possibility, they cannot afford to be passive. The statement signals several key strategic priorities for the EU:

1. Strategic Autonomy (A Fortress Europe): This is the core of the new approach. The EU is accelerating its efforts to become more self-sufficient, especially in:

   • Defense: Boosting its own defense industry and military capabilities, reducing dependence on the U.S. for its security. The war in Ukraine has made this even more urgent.

   • Trade: De-risking its supply chains and protecting its economy from external shocks, including potential future U.S. tariffs.

   • Technology: Regulating big tech and fostering its own champions to avoid being dominated by U.S. and Chinese companies.

2. No More Sugar-Coating: It’s a message of clear-eyed realism. Michel is publicly admitting that the transatlantic alliance will not simply revert to its post-WWII form. It is an acknowledgment of a permanent shift in U.S. politics that Europe must adapt to.

3. A Message to Washington (and Moscow): The statement also serves as a warning.

   • To the U.S.: It says, “We want to be partners, but if you choose an adversarial ‘America First’ path, we are prepared to stand on our own.” It attempts to establish a position of strength, not pleading.

   • To Russia: It signals that Europe’s support for Ukraine and its own defense preparations will continue unabated, regardless of who is in the White House. This is meant to counter any Russian hope that a Trump victory would automatically fracture Western support.

Potential Implications

• A More Assertive Europe: We can expect the EU to be more forceful in defending its economic interests, potentially leading to more trade disputes with a future Trump administration.

• A Transactional Relationship: The relationship may become more like the one during Trump’s first term: focused on specific deals rather than shared values and broad strategic alignment.

• Internal EU Challenges: “Strategic autonomy” is easier said than done. EU member states have vastly different opinions on defense spending and relations with the U.S., which could hinder a unified response.

• Continuity on Ukraine: The EU is likely to try to “institutionalize” support for Ukraine through long-term funding and security guarantees, making it more resilient to political changes in the U.S.

In summary, Charles Michel’s statement is a declaration of European strategic independence. It marks the end of wishful thinking about the U.S. and the beginning of a new, more pragmatic, and self-reliant chapter in EU foreign policy, prepared for a world where American support is no longer a constant.