Where cannabis could be legalized in US as Trump considers making huge marijuana law change

This is a topic of significant legal and social change in the United States. The landscape of cannabis legalization is evolving rapidly, and the potential for federal reform under a second Trump administration is a major point of discussion.

Here’s a breakdown of where cannabis could be legalized next and what a potential federal law change under Trump could entail.

I. Where Cannabis Could Be Legalized Next (State-Level)

While federal law remains the overarching barrier, state-level legalization continues to advance. The most likely candidates for legalization in the near future are states where legislative efforts are already underway or where public support is overwhelmingly high.

1. States with Pending Legislation or Strong Momentum:

• Florida: A ballot initiative for adult-use legalization (Amendment 3) has qualified for the November 2024 ballot. It requires a 60% supermajority to pass, which recent polls suggest is achievable. This would be a massive victory for legalization, given Florida’s large population.

• Pennsylvania: Governor Josh Shapiro (D) has been a strong advocate for legalization and has included it in his budget proposals. The main hurdle is the Republican-controlled Senate. If Democrats can flip the chamber in the 2024 elections, legalization becomes highly likely.

• New Hampshire: The state legislature has repeatedly passed legalization bills, only to have them vetoed or stalled. A compromise bill is frequently discussed, and it remains one of the most likely New England states to legalize next.

• Hawaii: Multiple legalization bills have advanced through the legislature but have failed to cross the finish line. With a new governor supportive of reform, 2025 could be the year.

2. States to Watch (Longer Shots or Dependent on Federal Change):

• Ohio: After voters approved adult-use legalization in November 2023, the Republican-led legislature has been attempting to alter the law. However, the will of the voters makes full implementation likely, though the timeline and specifics are still being debated.

• Texas: Full legalization is unlikely in the short term due to the conservative legislature. However, there is growing momentum for significant decriminalization and expansion of the state’s very limited medical program.

• Other States: South Dakota (where voters passed legalization only to have it overturned by the courts) and North Carolina could see future ballot initiatives or legislative pushes, especially if federal law changes.

II. The Federal Picture: What Trump and Congress Might Do

This is the more complex and impactful part of the equation. A “huge marijuana law change” from the Trump administration could take several forms, with vastly different outcomes.

Potential Federal Scenarios:

1. The Most Likely Change: Rescheduling

   • What it is: The Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) is currently considering a recommendation from the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to move cannabis from Schedule I (no medical use, high potential for abuse) to Schedule III (accepted medical use, lower potential for abuse).

   • What it would do:

     • Acknowledge Medical Use: Legally recognize cannabis has medical value.

     • Unlock Research: Make it much easier for scientists to study cannabis.

     • Help Cannabis Businesses: Remove the crushing tax burden of IRS code 280E, which prevents state-legal cannabis businesses from deducting standard business expenses, potentially saving the industry billions.

     • It Would NOT Legalize: Schedule III would not make cannabis legal for adult use nationwide. It would remain a controlled substance, and state laws would still govern its legality.

2. The “States’ Rights” Approach (Ending Federal Prohibition)

   • What it is: This would be a larger legislative change, such as passing a law like the States Reform Act (which Trump has reportedly discussed with allies). This approach would:

     • Remove cannabis from the Controlled Substances Act entirely or move it to a much lower schedule.

     • Decriminalize it at the federal level.

     • Allow each state to decide its own cannabis laws without federal interference, similar to alcohol policy.

   • This is the “huge change” that would truly end the federal-state conflict and allow existing state markets to operate without fear of federal prosecution.

3. Full Legalization

   • This would involve federal legislation to legalize, regulate, and tax cannabis nationwide. This is the least likely outcome under a Trump administration, as it lacks broad Republican support.

Summary: Key Takeaways

• State-Level: Watch Florida (vote in November 2024) and Pennsylvania (depending on 2024 election results) as the next big states likely to legalize.

• Federal-Level: The most immediate and probable federal change is the rescheduling of cannabis to Schedule III. This would be a historic shift but would not equate to national legalization.

• Trump’s Role: Reports suggest Trump is open to a “states’ rights” approach that would decriminalize cannabis at the federal level and let states choose their own path. This would be a monumental shift and is the policy change that could truly unlock the next wave of state-level legalizations, even in conservative states.

• The Stakes: A federal decriminalization law would normalize the industry, allow for banking services (addressing the dangerous all-cash problem), and trigger a new era of investment and growth.

For the most accurate information, it’s always best to follow state-specific news outlets and track legislation on sites like Ballotpedia (for voter initiatives) and NORML (which tracks state and federal legislation).